Shahid KhambattaIn this article, we will delve into the future of the diamond market, exploring key predictions and trends that will shape the industry in 2023 and beyond. Drawing insights from industry experts, analyst reports, and market observations, we aim to provide a comprehensive analysis that will help businesses navigate the evolving landscape of the diamond market.
1. Natural Diamond Price and Supply
To understand the current state of natural diamond supply, it is essential to reflect on the events of the past year. The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, prompted the United States to impose sanctions on Russia, including restrictions on resources. Alrosa, one of the world’s largest diamond producers, was impacted as the Russian government holds a significant stake in the company.
Initially, the sanctions primarily targeted U.S. investments in Russian companies. However, they escalated over the following months, with an executive order signed by President Joe Biden on March 11, banning the import of non-industrial Russian diamonds. Subsequently, Alrosa was included in the U.S. Treasury Department’s Specially Designated Nationals list.
Despite the sanctions, manufacturers had a 3- to 6-month supply of Russian diamonds on hand, which sustained them until August when demand for diamond jewelry started to slow down. Additionally, De Beers Group increased production to its highest volume since 2018, benefiting from the shortage of Russian goods. As a result, the industry did not experience the expected shortage in diamond supply.
However, looking ahead to 2023, an increase in demand and potential collaboration between the U.S. and Europe to restrict the flow of Russian diamonds into Western markets may exert further pressure on supply. Smaller players in the market are advised to adopt due-diligence standards for sourcing high-risk goods and communicate their preferences to suppliers to avoid inadvertently purchasing Russian diamonds.
2. Lab-Grown Diamond Price and Supply
The non-branded segment of the lab-grown diamond market could face challenges in 2023, potentially leading to a market shakeout. With numerous players entering the market, supply has outpaced demand, particularly for larger stones, resulting in a decline in prices.
According to industry analyst Paul Zimnisky’s State of the Diamond Market report for February 2023, the price of a 1-carat lab-grown diamond in Q1 2023 stands at $1,450, representing a 27 percent decrease in two years. Larger stones have experienced an even more pronounced decline, with the price of a 3-carat lab-grown diamond dropping by over half during the same period.
Retailers are beginning to express reduced motivation to sell lab-grown diamonds due to the continuous fall in prices. However, companies with strong brands, such as Pandora, are expected to thrive in this market. Pandora’s lab-grown diamond collection, “Diamonds by Pandora,” has resonated with customers, attracting new buyers and bolstering the retailer’s position.
3. Sales: Up, Down, or Flat?
The outlook for diamond jewelry sales in 2023 is closely tied to macroeconomic factors. Historically, diamond sales and prices correlate with global GDP, performing well during periods of economic growth and experiencing slower demand during economic downturns.
Although concerns of an impending recession were prevalent towards the end of 2022, the prevailing sentiment has shifted to a belief that the economy will experience a controlled slowdown, mitigating inflation risks. As a result, diamond jewelry sales are predicted to increase by a low single-digit percentage year-over-year, supported by above-average inflation rates.
However, it is important to consider external factors such as major geopolitical events or the emergence of unforeseen crises, which could disrupt the predicted trend. Barring such circumstances, the diamond market is anticipated to remain resilient.
4. Societal Shifts
Two key consumer groups will significantly impact diamond jewelry demand in 2023 and beyond: self-purchasers and Generation Z. Self-purchasers, primarily empowered women with increased purchasing power, are driving a long-term trend in the diamond industry. Changing attitudes and social norms surrounding marriage and relationships contribute to the rise of self-purchases.
Generation Z, the demographic cohort succeeding millennials, prioritizes branded products and values the social impact of their purchases. The Diamond Insight Report highlights that 76 percent of diamond jewelry purchased by Generation Z consumers was branded. Furthermore, 50 percent of Gen Z respondents expressed a willingness to buy or buy more when aware of the positive impact of natural diamonds on mining communities.
To capitalize on these shifts, the industry must emphasize storytelling and communicate the positive contributions made by diamonds. Consumers are becoming more conscious of the impact and origin of the products they purchase, aligning with broader trends of sustainability and ethical consumption.
In conclusion, the diamond market in 2023 and beyond is poised for dynamic changes. The interplay between natural and lab-grown diamonds, fluctuations in supply and demand, macroeconomic factors, and evolving consumer preferences will shape the industry’s trajectory. By staying informed and adapting to these trends, businesses can position themselves for success in an ever-evolving market.
Shahid Khambatta
